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The iPhone 5 is coming this summer, say strategy, habit, the calendar, and common sense. The iPad 3 will surface in 2012 and not 2011 for largely the same reasons. And the nature of iOS 5, the operating system both devices will eventually share, is anyone’s guess.

Thumbs up to the iPhone 5 arriving this summer, and here’s why: Apple has released a new iPhone every summer since 2007, like clockwork. In fact the company does this kind of rigidly timed release with all of its mobile products, so a deviation would require a reason. So far there hasn’t been one. Sure, the Verizon iPhone 4 didn’t go on sale until earlier this year, but so what. The AT&T iPhone 4 still on sale as well, and people are still buying it, and few will have sympathy for them. So the Verizon angle doesn’t play big here. Besides, the mere expectation of a summer iPhone means that Apple will need to deliver or else face the prospect of its more tuned-in customers waiting indefinitely for it. And then there’s the fact that “summer” technically lasts until late September, as it doesn’t even begin until late June. So the iPhone 5 rolls out in say, August, will anyone panic? Probably not.

Thumbs down on the iPad 3 arriving any time in 2011, and this one seems obvious: there’s not a compelling enough reason as to why Apple would opt to rock the boat in such a manner. Sure, Apple must have been working on a more ambitious “iPad 2″ which simply wasn’t ready and so we got the evolutionary “iPad 2″ instead. And yeah, that secret revamped iPad (which would now be the “iPad 3″) won’t take another eleven months to get right, so it could be theoretically ready to go by the holiday season. But semi-permanently shifting the iPad to a holiday release schedule seems a bit severe just because the iPad 3 is ready to go early. And knowing Apple’s aggressiveness, the extra time will simply motivate them to try to stuff even more into the iPad 3 by next March. So while an iPad 3 in 2011 is not impossible, but don’t count on it.

Sideways on iOS 5 showing up this summer: yeah, we don’t have a clue what Apple is planning as far as the release date for its next generation touchscreen operating system. It could show up at any time in 2011 and we wouldn’t be shocked.

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